Monday, 22 December 2014 07:54

收入增长创新低 明年中国经济不看好?

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改革转型和经济增速放缓是2014年的两大关键字,而当2014年即将步入尾声,2015年的中国又将是怎样一番光景?

近日,麦肯锡全球资深董事欧高敦(Gordon Orr)以个人名义发布了《2015十大预测看中国》(下文称“报告”)。其中,欧高敦预计明年很可能是中国近十年来收入增长最低的一年,且就业和消费情 况也将有所“转冷”。在经济增速放缓的大背景下,欧高敦认为科技创新和法制的日臻完善将是中国的最新增长点。 “硅谷投资家们飞到中国学习以互联网为基础的商业模式颇受瞩目,这些大佬花时间可不是来华观光的。”欧高敦表示。

  薪资增幅或创十年最低

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报告指出,目前收入增长放缓已经出现了某些苗头。官方数据显示,2014年前9个月城市可支配收入同比增长为个位数。过去十年,几乎每个行业的平均工资都保持着两位数增长,很多城市的最低工资在五年内翻了一番。

“此前薪资的高增长也这给人一种错觉,以为工资会一直这么涨。正因为如此,工人们对自身的定价脱离了市场。” 欧高敦表示。国际货币基金组织(IMF)对中国的调研表明,最低工资每增长10%,就业率就会下跌1%。

以制造业为例,过去十年制造业工资按美元计算增长了四倍,报告认为这对浙江和广东的低端制造业的影响显而易见。

事实上,在采购经理指数和工业生产者价格指数持续下跌的形势之下,制造业面临着短期内降低工资成本的巨大压力。 报告指出两大原因:随着中国低劳动力成本的优势逐步消失,国际订单流向孟加拉和肯尼亚等低成本国家,浙江、广东等地的制造业规模不断萎缩;同时,中国工厂 装配生产线的现代化程度与十年前相比已是“大跃进”,且由于技术应用成本的下降,越来越多的生产线工人被取代。

此外,服务业也将受到波及。比如,中国的航空公司正大力推广电子购票以取代柜台代理,电信、金融服务和零售无一例外受到 “精简人力”的互联网业务模式的新挑战,并且已经大幅缩减招聘人数。

“在某些行业比如专业服务领域,新人的起薪实际上不升反降,我认为2015年中国劳动力工资将出现转折点。”欧高敦表示。

除了薪资增速放缓外,报告对2015年的就业市场也表示了担忧。科技进步会取代某些服务性工作,而这些岗位与中产阶级曾经息息相关—呼叫中心、营业员、银 行柜员、保险代理,这一趋势在2015年还将提速。此外,过去5年私营企业所创造的就业岗位增加了50%,然而这类就业大多属于薪酬较低的低端岗位。 2015年,政府将更重视服务业对就业的吸纳能力,除了出台政策鼓励企业扩招,对所创造岗位的质量也非常重视。可见,今后技术创新将是就业的关键词。

  创新法制=新增长点

尽管报告对中国2015年的基调并不十分乐观,但中国与日俱增的创新实力无疑得到了认可。

“中国在创新吗?明年我想不会有人再问这个了,倒是要观察中国创新对全球产生的影响。硅谷投资家们飞到中国学习以互联网为基础的商业模式颇受瞩目,这些大佬花时间可不是来华观光的。”欧高敦指出。

除了因特网外,中国创新已经全面开花,生物技术、医药、消费电子、医疗科技、无人机、 石墨烯,电信设备就是中国创新的代表性企业。

报告特别指出,中国几百家中型企业正在打造中国版 “德国中小企业集团”(German Mittelstand),这让那些财富1000强公司有点儿紧张。这些企业不再只盯着低成本,而是强调挖掘价值、倾听消费者心声,以及按市场所需开发产品。

事实上,欧乐敦在之前的印度行中就注意到了这个变化。“没有人再抱怨中国产品质量差,相反我们听到的是对中国产品高品质的赞誉。”他表示。

此外,更为完善的法制也将成为2015年的另一大增长点。“2015年这句话你不大会听得到了:我可以做这个,因为这是中国。商界清楚地认识到,反腐和中 国特色的依法治国是这届政府领导人长期治国的根本—这不是可选项,更不会中途改道。政府的态度非常明确,习近平推进依法治国的目标不仅有利于改善国家治 理,也有利于深化改革,这一点同样适用于企业”。

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